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[한겨레] The rise has created tension with the GNP, which believes it should be central with upcoming presidential elections

Ahn Chang-hyun, Staff Writer　

New Year's opinion polls carried out by different press outlets generally showed President Lee Myung-bak enjoying governance support ratings of over 50 percent. The only rating under 50 percent was found in an SBS survey, which showed a support rate of 48.2 percent. In other polls conducted by Munhwa Broadcasting Company (MBC), the Hankyoreh, Korean Broadcasting System (KBS), and the Hankook Ilbo, his rating was above 50 percent, at 53.3 percent, 51.8 percent, 50.9 percent, and 50.1 percent, respectively. This marks a substantial rise from his previous ratings, which hovered in the mid 40 percent range.

While the majority expressed support for the president, the atmosphere was less welcoming for members of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP). Indeed, some GNP members were suspecting a support rating bubble due to the large gulf between the high support ratings for President Lee and the negative popular sentiment they experienced themselves.

A first-term lawmaker from the Seoul area said Monday that there was "a difference of more than 20 percentage points between the polling figures and the outcome in last year's local elections."

"It does not seem like the opinions of the voters you meet in localities are captured in the opinion polls," the lawmaker said.

Analysts said this differential stems not only from the fundamental limitations of polling using home telephones but also from the different meanings carried by surveys on support for the president. Observers noted that the support rating figures conflate opinions such as "he is working hard" and "he has not made any major mistake."

Indeed, polling experts said that the high support figures for the president include "imaginary numbers." In their view, the fact that President Lee is enjoying high support ratings entering the fourth year of his term, in contrast with previous presidents, stems from fundamental differences in the way they started out. In other words, whereas previous presidents enjoyed high support early on in their terms only to see them fall along a "staircase" or "L" pattern, President Lee was able to rise along the "staircase" model because he started with support ratings down around 10 percent due to the candlelight vigil demonstrations over the unilateral decision to resume U.S. beef imports.

The analysis suggests that factors working in the president's favor include the fact that he presented himself the "economy president" and was therefore not subject to high expectations in other areas, that he has maintained a distance from potentially controversial political issues, and that no convincing alternative has presented itself among the opposition.

"Right now, opinion polls are assessments of governance, so they also include the sense of 'things are better than before,'" said Yoon Hee-woong, head of the research analysis office for the Korea Society Opinion Institute. "It is the same principle as there being a clear difference between saying that a particular baseball player does a 'good job' and being a fan of that player."

The emphasis on "party-centered governance" from the GNP leadership since the start of the year also appears to be a continuation of this perception. During a meeting of the GNP's Supreme Council Monday, Chairman Ahn Sang-soo said, "The administration must bear in mind that the party should be at the center of major policy, as this is the year ahead of the general and presidential elections."

"Even if we do cooperate with the administration where cooperation is needed, we will provide a thorough check where checks are warranted," Ahn added.

Also at the meeting, Supreme Council member Chung Doo-un said that 2011 was "effectively the last year for the reelection of the GNP."

"The party needs to engage in direct governance," Chung said.

A high-ranking party official said, "Ours is a different story from Brazil, where former president Lula was enjoying support ratings of over 80 percent."

"The next election is something the party is doing, and to win it we will need to step over whoever is in the way, even if it is the Cheong Wa Dae," the official added.

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]

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